For the past three years, retirement drawdown has felt… surprisingly comfortable.
Markets have delivered double-digit growth (in some cases pension pots have risen even as income has been taken). Clients check their balances, feel reassured, and quietly conclude that retirement is ticking along nicely. Advisers feel proven right. Providers point to strong outcomes. Everyone enjoys the sense that the system is working exactly as planned.
And that’s precisely the problem.
Because good markets have a habit of masking uncomfortable truths, and one of the biggest, least visible risks in retirement planning is sequencing risk. Not because it’s complicated, but because it only shows itself when conditions change.
The bull market we’re experiencing now won’t last forever, so it’s now (while things still look healthy), that we need to talk about what happens next.
What is sequencing risk in pensions?
For marketers, (and anyone involved in advice & distribution), one of the biggest challenges is that sequencing risk sounds technical and abstract, which makes it easy to relegate to the small print. But the reality is brutally simple and very human.
Sequencing risk in pensions is the risk that the timing of investment returns – not just the overall level of returns – can significantly affect how long a pension lasts once someone starts taking money from it.
In simple terms, it matters when good and bad markets happen.
If markets fall early in retirement and clients are drawing income at the same time, losses hurt more. Withdrawals crystallise those losses. The pot shrinks faster. And even if markets bounce back later, there may not be enough capital left to benefit fully from the recovery.
Two retirees can make the same decisions, use the same products, and experience the same average returns over 20 years. One retires into a rising market and thrives. The other retires into a falling one and struggles.
That difference is sequencing risk, and it can define the entire retirement experience.
Why this conversation matters right now
After years of growth, many clients in drawdown now see taking income while staying fully invested as “just how retirement works”. If their pot is bigger than when they started, that belief feels rock solid. Nothing looks fragile.
That confidence is also the risk. Sequencing doesn’t show up in the good years. It waits for an early downturn, when withdrawals are already happening and there’s less time, and money, to recover. The returns can be identical. The outcomes rarely are.
From a marketing perspective, timing is everything, and the current environment is quietly doing you a favour.
Clients are engaged because their pensions are growing. Advisers have credibility because recent outcomes look good. Providers can frame conversations around preparation rather than panic. That combination doesn’t come around often.
Waiting until markets fall makes sequencing risk sound like an excuse. Talking about it now positions it as sensible, responsible planning.
This isn’t about predicting a crash or talking the market down. It’s about acknowledging that markets move in cycles, and retirement plans need to work in all of them.
1: Advice Firms & Networks: supporting drawdown advice conversations
Advisers already understand sequencing risk. Many worry about it deeply, particularly for clients who retire at the wrong moment. But raising it when everything appears to be going well can feel uncomfortable.
Suggesting lower withdrawals, more cash, or guaranteed income when a portfolio is flying feels counterintuitive to clients. Without the right framing, it can even sound overly cautious or self-interested.
That’s where strong marketing really earns its keep.
Clear, consistent provider messaging makes sequencing risk a shared reality rather than an adviser’s personal opinion. Educational content, modelling tools and well-crafted narratives give advisers the language they need to explain why planning for downturns isn’t pessimistic, it’s professional.
The result? Clients make more informed decisions, advisers can clearly evidence their rationale, and advice is far better protected against regulatory scrutiny and future complaints.
In short, good marketing gives advisers the confidence to say the unpopular thing at exactly the right time.
2. Providers: A missed opportunity
For providers offering drawdown, annuities or blended solutions, sequencing risk is often treated as a technical footnote. In reality, it’s one of the strongest strategic narratives available.
When markets eventually turn, clients don’t just worry about performance. They worry about sustainability. Simple drawdown starts to feel exposed. Guarantees, once dismissed as dull, suddenly look reassuring.
Providers who have already educated clients about sequencing risk are far better placed to introduce blended approaches, reposition annuities as risk management tools, and talk credibly about certainty without sounding reactive.
Do it after markets fall and it feels like damage control. Do it now and it feels like foresight.
Solving the communication challenge
If you’re responsible for marketing in a financial firm, sequencing risk deserves more than a diagram buried in a brochure. It should be shaping your content, your adviser support, and your product narratives.
And if you want help turning complex retirement risks into clear, confident marketing that advisers and clients actually engage with, that’s where we come in.
Moreish have a neat, ready-made solution up our sleeve that could help! If this blog has sparked your interest about mitigating sequencing risk, reach out here to find out more.